stisimo

[chipmeisterrz]

μπορει καποιος να μου πει ποιες ειναι οι πιθανοτητες να μιρασι ΑΑ-ΚΚ σε 10ρι τραπεζι?

[dimagrec]

1/230*1/230*10

[gsbets]

στα ιδια πλαισια...

διαβασα σε ενα blog αυτο.

Getting aces twice in a row

There's been a discussion on 2+2 of the odds of getting dealt a pair of aces in Texas Hold'em twice in a row.

My immediate thinking was: the odds of getting dealt aces in (4*3) in (52*51) = 1 in 221. The odds of this twice in a row in 1 in (221 * 221) = 1 in 48841.

I was wrong. On further reflection I realised that there is no correct answer, because there is insufficient info. The question should be "what's the odds of getting pocket aces twice in a row given...."

For example, what's the odds of getting aces twice in a row in the next two hands is 1 in 48841.

But the odds of getting aces twice in a row given that you got aces in the first hand is only 1 in 221. Not so remarkable after all.

And the odds of getting dealt pocket aces twice in a row during a session of 100 hands? Pretty high I guess!

[Duke_97]

Παιρνω ασσους στο poker.gr κανω missclick (θα κερδιζα αν εμπαινα) στα καπακια ξανα ασσους και εχασα...

[nanasta]

chipmeisterrz έγραψε:

μπορει καποιος να μου πει ποιες ειναι οι πιθανοτητες να μιρασι ΑΑ-ΚΚ σε 10ρι τραπεζι?

0.0045% gia na paisei kapios apo tous 9 aa eno esy exeis kk, * 9 antipalous ara peripou 4%. Diladi stis 100 fores pou tha piaseis kk na perimeneis tis 4 tha peseis se assous.

[nanasta]

dimagrec έγραψε:

1/230*1/230*10

den xero [ou to vrikes auto pantos einai lathos oti tha peseis se assous 1 apo tis 4938 fores pou tha piaseis kk. Kia apo paraktiki an kapoios exei paixei merikes xiliades xeria xerei oti den einai kai toso spanio 1 stis 25 peripou.

[dimagrec]

1]25*1|221=?

[gsbets]

η διαφορα στη λογικη ειναι αυτο ακριβως που εγραψα πιο πανω.

αν παρεις ως δεδομενο οτι εχεις παρει AA or KK , πια ειναι η πιθανοτητα

να πεσεις σε ΑΑ οr KK.

Και αυτη ειναι ο σωστος τροπος να το δεις imo , και οχι σαν 3ος παρατηρητης.

δηλαδη πια η πιθανοτητα να συμβει το ολο "στησιμο"

[dimagrec]

an pareis dedomeno oti exeis AA einai 1|221 *osoi pektes pezoun px 9

peripou 1 kathe 25 opos eipe o nanasta .an metras omos tin pithanotita na simvei auto einai o poio pano tipos.kai an sas fenonte polla ta 5000 peripou den einai.

giati se 10ri trapezi me 50 xeria tin ora epi 10 pektes

auto simvainei 1 fora kathe 10 ores.

tora an valeis kai to deviation pou leei o panopoulos mporei na simvei se ena 10oro 2-3 fores.

tora pos egine se mena prin eikosi meres sto londino sto empire me to pou ekatsa sto trapezi na paro KK kai na peso se AA kai na xaso olo to stak

auto den thelei analisi alla papa gia euxeleo

[nanasta]

dimagrec έγραψε:

an pareis dedomeno oti exeis AA einai 1|221 *osoi pektes pezoun px 9

peripou 1 kathe 25 opos eipe o nanasta .an metras omos tin pithanotita na simvei auto einai o poio pano tipos.kai an sas fenonte polla ta 5000 peripou den einai.

giati se 10ri trapezi me 50 xeria tin ora epi 10 pektes

auto simvainei 1 fora kathe 10 ores.

tora an valeis kai to deviation pou leei o panopoulos mporei na simvei se ena 10oro 2-3 fores.

tora pos egine se mena prin eikosi meres sto londino sto empire me to pou ekatsa sto trapezi na paro KK kai na peso se AA kai na xaso olo to stak

auto den thelei analisi alla papa gia euxeleo

+

file mou ti mas les tora? to paidi rotise an exeis kk % pou tha peseis se assous, to poso sixna simbainei auto genika den ton endiaferei , na prosexoume tis erotiseis giatio allios tha dinoume lathos plirofories se neous paixtes

[dimagrec]

agapite mou ellinika xero arketa kala

auti itan i erotisi tou paidiou

(μπορει καποιος να μου πει ποιες ειναι οι πιθανοτητες να μιρασι ΑΑ-ΚΚ σε 10ρι τραπεζι?)

den nomizo oti den eimoun prosextikos stin apantisi mou kai dieukriniseis mporei na dosei o idios

[nanasta]

dimagrec έγραψε:

agapite mou ellinika xero arketa kala

auti itan i erotisi tou paidiou

(μπορει καποιος να μου πει ποιες ειναι οι πιθανοτητες να μιρασι ΑΑ-ΚΚ σε 10ρι τραπεζι?)

den nomizo oti den eimoun prosextikos stin apantisi mou kai dieukriniseis mporei na dosei o idios

auto pou endiaferei kapion pou paizei einai otan exei piasei kk ti pithanotites exei na pesei se aa. Einai etsi i den einai? rotage auto i oxi? an den katalavaineis oti auto rotouse tote eimai ego vlakas pou katalavaino kati allo.