implied odds

[clickys]

Pedia mpori kapios na mou eksigisi akrivos ti ine, vasika ine i pithanotites otan exis kapio draw i otidipote posa sto telos tha paris tou antipalous sou an kanis to fill sou ?

[fun3s]

en arxhn, ein ta expressed odds, dhladh to poso pou exeis na valeis gia to call, pros ta lefta pou einai katw. Ta implied odds einai to idio noumero ousiastika, mono pou ston paranomasth 8a prepei na pros8eseis ta extra lefta pou 8a mpoun sto pot otan xtyphseis to draw sou. Ta implied odds mporei na yparxoun, mporei kai oxi. Einai panta eksartomena ap to fyllo tou adipalou kai to mono pou mporeis na kaneis einai educated guess. px, exeis flush draw sto flop kai sou kanei o adipalos half-pot bet. Ta expressed odds einai 3-1 kai ta odds na veltiw8eis einai 4-1 against. Omws, otan veltiw8eis, 8a plhrw8eis kati akoma elpizeis, kai gi afto kaneis call

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giati omos 4-1 against?

[mental]

As arxisoume me ta vasika,

ta pot odds einai ta lefta pou einai idi sto pot kai ara perimeneis na kerdiseis xoris further betting.

p.x an sto turn eisai 1 pros 2 underdog kai prepei na kaneis call pou einai 1 pros 2 tou pot, exeis ta pot odds na kaneis call.

Tora ta implied pot odds ipologizoun, posa lefta mporeis na pareis parapano apo oti exei mesa sto pot an kaneis to xeri sou. I pio apli periptosi einai auti pou ipologizeis me implied pot odds oti mporeis na pareis olo to stack tou.

p.x se NL100 pou exete 80$ kai oi 2 kanei raise 5$ kai to pot einai 8$, esi kanontas call exeis pot odds 1 pros 1, ta maximum implied pot odds einai 10 pros 1 an ipologisoume olo to stack tou. Alla auto einai i idaniki periptosi.

As doume mia pio logiki periptosi.

Paizeis NL200, exeis kanei raise pre flop 6$ apo to button me :Ad :Kd, ta blinds pane paso kai se kanei call enas tight aggresive paixtis apo middle position. To pot einai 15$.

To flop einai :9c :7h :6d, kai kaneis continuation bet 7$ sto opoio pairneis ena call. To pot einai 29$.

To turn erxetai :2d pou sou dinei to nut flush kai xanakaneis bet 16$. O antipalos sou kanei raise 36$ pou fernei to pot sta 81$. Tora as ipologisoume ta pot odds. Prepei na kaneis call 20$ gia na kerdiseis ta 81$, ara exeis 4 pros 1 pot odds. Tora ipothetoume enas tight player san auton tha ekane tetio raise mono me to nut straight dld an eixe 10 8, 'i me kapoio set opote 99, 77, 66.

Ipothetontas tin kaliteri periptosi oti den exei diamond sto xeri exoume:

9 outs an exei straight, peripou 20% na kanoume to xeri mas sto river, dld 1 pros 5.

7 outs an exei set, peripou 16% na kanoume to xeri mas sto river, dld 1 pros 6.

Eimaste 4 pros 1 opote den exoume ta pot odds na kanoume to call.

As doume ta implied pot odds tora. An kanoume to nut flush kai de veltiothei to xeri tou antipalou an exei set, poso ipologizoume oti mporei na kanei call sto river?

To pot einai 101$. Kata pasa pithanotita epeidi petixame to backdoor flush draw, o antipalos mas tha kanei call otidipote anamesa se 30-50$, xoris na ipologisoume tin pithanotita na tou kanoume check-raise sto river. Tora xerontas oti tha kerdisoume toulaxiston 30$ akoma as xanakanoume tous ipologismous.

To call 20$ gia na kerdisoume 131$, mas dinei implied pot odds 1 pros 6.5, ara se auto to senario to kanei kalo call.

Kleinontas na sou po oti oles oi periptoseis den einai idies, an px se autin tin periptosi eixes to nut flush apo to flop, i pithanotita na plirotheis tha itan mikroteri.

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